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Friday, October 4, 2013

New Jersey: Under the radar?

Could the Big Man's coattails bring us some down ticket victories? 

by Clifford F. Thies 

The word seems to be getting out: The Republicans may pick up control of the New Jersey state legislature. 

(Source: Bloomberg.com)

In 2011, the Republicans just about held their own, breaking even in the State Senate and losing only one seat in the State Assembly. Gov. Chris Christie tried to put a good face on the results, given re-districting and the historical tendency of the Governor's party to lose seats in the next election of the state legislature. 

But, this year, with a big blow out in the Gubernatorial contest and the possible problems Democrats will have getting-out their vote in two elections within days of each other, Republicans are hopeful of significant gains 

Unfortunately, we have little direct evidence. In the most recent Quinnipiac Poll, a net of +7 percent indicated that they would vote for the state legislative candidate endorsed by Christie, whereas a net of -10 percent indicated that they would vote for the state legislative candidate endorsed by the Democratic candidate for Governor, whatshername. 

Looking at the results from 2011, a swing of 7 to 10 points would be required for the Republicans to have a shot of picking up control of the state legislature. On the other hand, an earlier Stockton College Poll showed Christie to have no impact on state legislative races. 

These and other polls indicate that Democrats as well as others have pretty much accepted that Christie is going to win, and that they (the Democrats) are not so negative about his re-election even though the majority of them are of course inclined to vote for their party's nominee. This means that turnout may play a role in deciding the outcomes in downticket races.

2 comments:

jgeleff said...

It doesn't matter, because a NJ Republican is a Pennsylvania Democrat. Statist pig asshole to the end.

Gary said...

Well said.