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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Q Poll: Colorado looks likes it's finally in play for the GOP

Christie or Cruz to go against The Hill?

by Clifford F. Thies 

Reading polls this far out from the 2014 elections, no less the 2016 elections, is tricky business. You have to know what to look for. Correctly read, the just released Quinnipiac Poll of Colorado shows a lot of potential for Republicans.

The top line shows Hillary Clinton, the hero of Benghazi, 1 point behind New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and 3 points ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz (the two Republicans "tested" in this poll). Superficially, this shows that Clinton is a strong candidate for the Democrats, and Christie a better candidate for the Republicans than Cruz. The truth is just the opposite. 

Looking at Clinton's Favorability, 95 percent express an opinion. She's a known factor, with no upside. While she has a net favorable rating of +7, she starts off with 44 percent unfavorable. This means a Republicans only has to appeal MORE to a few people who have a favorable opinion of her to beat her. This isn't very hard to do since, again in this poll of Colorado, a good percentage of Republicans, about half of the independents and of whites, and about two-thirds of hispanics register a favorable opinion of Clinton, and our candidate can appeal to many in these groups (i.e., register with them as MORE favorable). 

Turning to Chris Christie, he has a +28 in net favorability, a number as huge as the man himself. But, only 72 percent express an opinion. He has upside potential. He currently leads Clinton and he could widen his lead. But, he has a potential problem. A significant number of Republicans express a negative opinion. This means that he might not hold the base. Turning to Ted Cruz, he only has a +10 net favorable (still this is a higher net favorable than Clinton). But, Cruz is hardly known to the people of the state. Fully 58 percent do not register an opinion. This means he is an almost undefined quantity. Even a majority of Republicans haven't heard enough of him. That Cruz - an unknown - is only 3 points behind Clinton in the horse race speaks volumes. Another thing about Colorado. Colorado was supposed to be the "one more" state in Karl Rove's 2+3+1 plan (i.e., win the states won by McCain in 2008, win the two "traditionally Republican" states of IN and NC, the three "purple states" of FL, OH and VA, and one more state). 

But, toward the end, it became clear that Romney was faltering in Colorado, and turned his attention to states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This wasn't because Obama was stronger than expected in Colorado. It was because Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, was putting up a big number (for a third-party candidate) in the state. To me, this means that, as far as Colorado is concerned, with its large Hispanic bloc and with its libertarian streak, Cruz would make a stronger candidate than Christie.

7 comments:

jimmyjones5 said...

Its August 2013. The election is over three years away.

mitsukurina said...

Christie could win Colorado; Cruz not a chance. Cruz would mean the GOP winning the lowest share its taken of the national vote since 1964.

Chuck said...

You have no idea what you're talking about. Christie wouldn't even make the showing Romney made. Cruz would rally the base in a way few others can.

Anything can happen, but Christie is basically a morbidly obese Bob Dole without the compelling back story.

mitsukurina said...

"Anything can happen, but Christie is basically a morbidly obese Bob Dole without the compelling back story."

Ouch. Maybe Christie's not the right man, but I have no doubt that outside the bastions of the South, the non-Urban Rockies, and certain rural parts of the country; a red in tooth and claw conservative will have his ass handed to him in a presidential election.

"Cruz would rally the base in a way few others can."

If the GOP rely only on the ever dwindling "base" they are doomed as a national party, Chuck. Cruz will be hammered in well-educated middle class areas (NE Virginia, SE Pennsylvania, all of New England, all of California aside from the Central Valley etc). These are areas that Republicans should be competitive in but are not since they are too focused on the ageing base.

Chuck said...

"If the GOP rely only on the ever dwindling "base" they are doomed as a national party,"

Again, you prove you have no idea what you're talking about. You don't understand this country.
Red in tooth? You're a fucking cliche machine. Trained by the left. Ordered what to think...and obedient.

mitsukurina said...

Trained ... blah blah blah. Get your head out of your ass you fool. Your brand of god old boy authoritarian rightism is long dead. No one who lives above the gnat line gives a damn about your 1950s ideas.

mitsukurina said...

Fuck if I were running the DNC I'd love to have a crazy fuck like you setting GOP policy.