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Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Senate bill, senior economists weigh in

Tax increases kickin' in will most certainly slow growth

From the Boston Globe:
The so-called payroll tax is scheduled to bounce back up to 6.2 percent this year from 4.2 percent in 2011 and 2012, amounting to a $1,000 tax increase for someone earning $50,000 a year.

‘‘It’s a huge hit,’’ says Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. ‘‘It hits people whether they’re making $10,000 or they’re making $2 million. It doesn’t matter who you are ... The lower your income, the more of your income you’re (spending). So if you’re taxes go up, it’s going to come out of your spending.’’ And that is bad news for an economy that is 70 percent consumer spending.
Continuing:
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, calculates that the higher payroll tax will reduce economic growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2013. The other possible tax increases — including higher taxes on household incomes above $450,000 a year — will slice just 0.15 percentage points off annual growth, Zandi said.
Vitner at Wells, .8% shaved off of economic growth for 2013

From NewsMax:
Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said he expects budget policy, including the higher taxes in the Senate plan, to shave 0.8 percentage points off economic growth in 2013. The economy doesn't have much growth to give. Vitner predicts it will grow just 1.5 percent in 2013, down from 2.2 percent in 2012.

The biggest hit to the economy is expected to come from the end of a two-year Social Security tax cut. The so-called payroll tax is scheduled to bounce back up to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent in 2011 and 2012, amounting to a $1,000 tax increase for someone earning $50,000 a year.

3 comments:

Erich Domdero said...

.8 or .08? Make up your mind.

Eric Dondero said...

hit the tip jar

Erich Domdero said...

Hit the proofreading.