Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Official Vote Totals: Pennsylvania could have been the the key state

Turns out Romney under-performed in Colorado

by Clifford F. Thies

At the time, the Democrats were saying that Romney's interest in Pennsylvania was an act of desperation because Ohio was out of reach. Now that all the vote totals are in (with New York State finally getting the job done), that was not the case.
Nationwide, Obama beat Romney 51.1 to 47.2 percent, or by 3.9 percentage points. Lining up the close states, we have:

  • Florida: 0.9 point margin 
  • Ohio 3.0 
  • Virginia 3.9 
  • Pennsylvania 
  • 5.4 Colorado 
  • 5.4 New Hampshire
  •  5.6 Iowa 5.8 
  • Nevada 5.8 
  • Wisconsin 6.9 
  • Minnesota 7.7 

 According to the 2 + 3 + 1 plan, Romney had to (A) win all the McCain states plus Indiana and North Carolina, which he did; plus (B) win each of the three big states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which he would have with a 2 point swing; and, (3) win one more state.

Of the remaining purple states, Colorado seemed, in real time, to be the most possible. But, as things turned out, Romney under-performed in Colorado relative to the nationwide margin in the popular vote, because the Republicans did not do enough to prevent vote-siphoning by the Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate. (The same thing occurred, but to a lesser extent, in Nevada and New Hampshire.)

The problem wasn't particularly Ohio, in which Romney performed better than he did nationwide. Rather, the problem was Colorado, where Romney did worse than he did nationwide. And, not being able to appeal to more libertarian-oriented voters, he turned to a northeastern state - a place where moderate Republicans might do well - for a chance at grabbing the brass ring. Without the late shift in voter sentiment, which we attribute to hurricane Sandy, he might have carried the each of the big three states and fallen short of the winning for failing to carry Colorado.

With the election now behind us, here are a few things that should stand out: (1) a moderate doesn't rev up the conservative base of the party, (2) a moderate doesn't prevent third-party siphoning by the Libertarians, (3) a moderate doesn't buy us many votes among the "persuadable" independent and swing voters, (4) having two white male candidates on the ticket doesn't help us overcome the advantage of the Democrats with female and non-white voters, and (5) the Vice Presidential candidate doesn't change the numbers much even in his home state and doesn't change the numbers at all in the other states in his region.

Hey, but what do I know? I'm not one of those high priced consultants that establishment Republicans turn to in order to win elections.


jgeleff said...

And we saw, once again, Paul Ryan's TRUE stripes in the fiscal cliff vote. He voted YEA. That's some economic conservative.

Erich Domdero said...

Here is one thing that should really stand out: The American People don't buy your bullshit anymore.