Sunday, December 2, 2012
Romney's internals days before the election
by Clifford F. Thies The New Republic has a piece discussing Romney's internal polling for certain states during the weekend prior to the election. Contrary to the slant in the New Republic article, Romney's internal polls showed him at a disadvantage going into Tuesday. Bottom line is that his polls showed him down 2 points in Ohio. Thinking he had Florida (which was nearly a tie) and Virginia (which turned out similar to Ohio), he needed Ohio plus one other state. He thought that one "other" state could be New Hampshire or Colorado (concerning which states his polls were wrong.) Hence: Pennsylvania. While Romney's polls also showed him down in Pennsylvania, there was the possibility things were more fluid in that state, since it had not been heavily contested. In hindsight, several things seem obvious enough to us at LR in terms of the Electoral College strategy. Most importantly, by restricting the campaign to only the incrementally more winnable Purple States, Romney enabled the other side to focus their ground game on those states. This enabled the other side to overcome their enthusiasm deficit. In terms of Purple States, you should initially target all of them. Team Romney focused too sharply on the persuadable voters and the winnable states. By conceding 47 percent to the other side, focusing exclusively on "the persuadable 6 percent," In terms of the electorate, the proper target is somewhere between 55 and 60 percent, not 53. Team Romney over-relied on "pin-point" accuracy. It spent little on relatively cheap nationwide advertising. And, the candidates flitted about the country instead of tying campaign into Republican down-ticket races and state party infrastructures.