Saturday, November 3, 2012

Top left-libertarian goes on record: Landslide victory for Obama


From Eric Dondero:

Well, he certainly deserves some points for boldness. Thomas L. Knapp, Editor of the libertarian philosophy site Rational Review, contributing editor to, and former longtime Executive Committee member of the Libertarian Party of Missouri, has broken at little news here at Libertarian Republican. In the comments section of LR, Knapp writes:
I'm fairly sure that Obama will pull it off with either 303 or 332 electoral votes: In addition to Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, I think he will also pick up Virginia and just maybe Florida.
A clean sweep of all the battle ground states, save, perhaps Florida.

We will certainly hold him to that next Wednesday. (A little old-fashioned tar and feathering, perhaps? Maybe some forced funneling of Pabst Blue Ribbon or Keystone Lite down his throat?)


KN@PPSTER said...

Anything but Keystone Light, please. If there's anything worse than Coors, it's off-brand copies of Coors.

I expect I will have a Fat Tire or maybe some bourbon and cola on Tuesday night. I've got invites to the Libertarian Party's election night wing-ding, to Claire McCaskill's victory party, and to a local Republican congressional candidate's event. My guess is we'll drop in on the LP and the Republican. Democrats don't know how to party.

Brian said...

Landslide victory for Obama?

I guess in America you are entitled to your opinion no matter how ridiculous it is.

The Right Guy said...

Only the cheap stuff Eric?

If you are right, tell me your drink of choice as I am buying.

Gary said...

I was on the ground with Governor Reagan in 1980. No way in Hell did we expect a landslide or a GOP US Senate. . . . but it happened.

KN@PPSTER said...


It's impossible to go wrong with Old Crow and RC.

I do hope I am wrong, though. Whoever wins, I'd prefer it be very, very close, with the popular vote not going the same way as the electoral college. Our best outcome here is one party holding the White House, the other party holding at least one house of Congress, and no "mandate" numbers for anyone.

The Right Guy said...

Do you think that Obamacare should be repealed?

Eric Dondero said...

How's this for an outcome. The one I'm sort of predicting in fact:

Romney wins big.

Republicans just miss the Senate, but get to an even 50. With Angus King and that asshole from Vermont that makes:

50 Repubs
48 Dems
2 Independents

Joe Manchin either decides to run as a "compromise" Senate minority/majority leader, or fully caucuses with Mitch McConnell and the GOP. Being that he's friends with McConnell and their neighboring states, my guess is the two work out some sort of deal.

Eric Dondero said...

Oh, and on the House side, 3 to 5 seat pick up for the GOP.

Chuck said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
KN@PPSTER said...


Yes, I think Obamacare should be repealed. There's also just about a zero chance of that happening in the next Congress.

Eric, my Senate predictions are over at KN@PPSTER. They include the possibility that Manchin will change parties after the election.

I'm predicting a one seat gain for the Democrats, two if we treat King as a de facto Democrat. If Manchin switches parties, that reduces the Democrat gain to either one or zero.

But, my predictions are pretty conservative. There's at least one Republican pickup and one Republican hold that I'm not terribly certain about.

The Right Guy said...

With Obama as president, I would guarantee it would not be overturned and to Eric, is 50 votes enough to overturn Obamacare? Don't think so. So Romney will win, but his campaign manager may be right in that they'll never overturn Obamacare. That would suck.

Ran / SVP said...

Dunno. Friday Obama was in Hilliard. Fire department had the crowd at around 2800. Romney drew 30,000 +/- in Cinci a few hours later.

Eric, you'll love this: Remember the fair-haired lassie who sat across from you Shabbos lunchtime? Parents are big Obama supporters. Sunday they took the Obama sign off their lawn.

If Obama is going to sweep like Kn@pp says, his supporters here in Ohio hava a weird way of projecting it.

Ran / SVP said...

Michael Barone.

Eric Dondero said...

Now I know Tom Knapp has been spending too much time at the local Hookah there in St. Louie.

A 1 seat gain for Democrats in the Senate?


Nobody, not even Daily Kosser partisans are predicting that. Not even fucking Harry Reid is suggesting they're gonna pick up a seat.

Where? One has to assume that Scott Brown is definitely a loss. Deb Fisher will lose in Nebraska. The North Dakota seat will go to the Dems, even though Berg's about 10 points ahead. Tester wins in Montana (outside shot of this, but highly unlikely). Pennsylvania stays Casey, and Tom Smith's surge is all a mirage. I could go on and on.

But the absolute best scenario Dems can hope for is 50 in the Senate, plus Angus King.

Eric Dondero said...

Ran, I'm feeling more confident about Ohio today. PPP has a poll showing 'O' up only 1 in OH released this afternoon. PPP is far, far left partisan. If that's the best they can come up with, I think Mitt's got it in the bag.

Unsure about Pennsylvania though. Honestly, I've got goosebump fright about PA. If I had to guess right now, I think we might barely lose it.

BTW, Colorado's definitely ours! Early Voting numbers, finals, are way ahead for Mitt.

Eric Dondero said...

Hey Tom, what do you think of this latest New Hampshire poll? All tied up. An 8 point surge for Team Romney in ONE FRIGGIN' WEEK!!!

Is WMUR in Mitt's hip pocket? Would that be your explanation?

Eric Dondero said...

Ran, we're friends. So I hope I don't offend you here.

I'd like to think that it is the Jewish vote that's giving Romney his last minute surge in Ohio.

But quite honestly, gotta say, that I think Mitt's now ahead in the State because I spent 4 days sign waving there in Columbus on that street corner.

If it wasn't for my efforts, I really don't think Mitt would be winning Ohio right now.

I'd even go so far as to say, that Mitt can't win without Ohio, and thus because I won him the State, he owes me to some extent for his victory.

Ran / SVP said...

Hear hear!

Eric Dondero said...

Well, well, well. Looky here!




But hey, Tom Knapp still says an Obama landslide "easy."

The Right Guy said...

If scott brown loses we should saw off Massachusetts and let it sink in the atlantic. Warren is an unapologetic liar and fraud.

KN@PPSTER said...

"But in my imagination, hey, Tom Knapp still says an Obama landslide 'easy.'"

There, fixed that for ya.

At no time have I characterized my predicted outcome as a "landslide" or anything of the sort. In point of fact, I've predicted that Obama will not get a majority of the popular vote, and may even lose the popular vote to Romney.

"A 1 seat gain for Democrats in the Senate? ... Where?"

My Senate predictions are posted at my blog. I predict Democratic Senate pickups in Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada, and a de facto Democratic pickup in Maine. That's a total of either three or four, depending on whether you accept that King is likely to caucus with the Dems.

But I also predict Republican pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota, which brings it down to a net Dem gain of one or two (once again, depending on how you categorize King).

If Manchin switches parties after the election, then it would cancel out one Dem pickup.

Eric Dondero said...

Okay, there's your problem right there.

There's not been a single poll that shows Shelly Berkeley ahead of Dean Heller in Nevada. Yes, Heller's lead is never big, I'll grant you that. But it's been consistent, 3 to 5 points. I believe I saw one a few days ago, where he was actually 6 ahead. People even talk of reverse coattails, where Heller's momentum helps pull Romney across the finish line in NV.

2. I would not call the Maine seat a "defacto" pick-up for the Democrats. Dude. THERE'S A FUCKING DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE ON THE BALLOT IN THE RACE - Cynthia Dill. King is many things, a Democrat he is not. I know Maine politics like the back of my hand. Him and Elliott Cutler are genuine Independents with a capitol 'I'. There's even a possibility he could end up caucusing with the GOP. Yes, he's very socially and environmentally liberal. But on many fiscal matters, he leans conservative. He's also pro-gun.

Notice you left out Montana. That's a biggie? You cannot predict that Dems keep control of the Senate without saying something about MT. Every poll save one, has had Rehberg with a consistent 2 to 3 point lead over Tester. Possibility Tester holds on, but unlikely.

And what about Nebraska? That's a pick-up for the GOP too.

I will grant you on item: Yes, I do believe Republicans are in trouble in Indiana. But that can easily be made up with a win in Florida, Connnecticut, Ohio, and most assuredly in Pennsylvania. Tom Smith is the sleeper of Election Year 2012. He's gonna win. Maybe not by much. But he will win.

That gives the GOP more like a 51 to 52 seat majority, even with a loss of either Scott Brown or Mourdock.

No telling what the fuck's gonna happen in Missouri?

Eric Dondero said...

I'm with Jim. If Massachusetts rejects Scott Brown, what does that say about the people of Massachusetts? Means damned near the entire population of that Commonwealth are complete and utter blithering idiots.

We should immediately introduce a bill in congress to expel Massachusetts from the United States. Let's take Puerto Rico in a trade.

My gosh. They trade a nice, decent family man, for an outright fraudster who should be in fuckin' jail.


Eric Dondero said...

Tom, no comment about that Minnesota poll from last night? How 'bout the New Hampshire poll with Romney up 1?

Or, the Pennsylvania poll released late last night with the race tied 47/47?

It's rainin' Romney, hallelujah... rainin' Romney...

Chuck said...

Another fool named Jim Cramer has said Brakabama is going to get 410 electoral votes. Talk about shitting the bed. Geez.

Chuck said...

" Warren is an unapologetic liar and fraud. "

Which is to say, she's a typical democrat.

KN@PPSTER said...


"Okay, there's your problem right there.

There's not been a single poll that shows Shelly Berkeley ahead of Dean Heller in Nevada."

Actually there have been three, just not recently. In recent polling, Heller is ahead but within the margin of error -- and my analysis of past Nevada polling indicates that it's a good idea to shave 2-3% off the GOP Senate prediction due to heavier turnout in Clark County than in the rest of the state.

So, while my prediction there is certainly debatable, I don't consider it wild-eyed. The nature of predictions is that ultimately you take your best guess based on the data.

2. I would not call the Maine seat a "defacto" pick-up for the Democrats. Dude. THERE'S A FUCKING DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE ON THE BALLOT IN THE RACE - Cynthia Dill. King is many things, a Democrat he is not.

No problem -- in my predictions I said that yes, it is debatable whether a King win is or is not a de facto Democratic pickup.

"Notice you left out Montana."

No I didn't. I predicted that it would be a Democratic hold.

"Every poll save one, has had Rehberg with a consistent 2 to 3 point lead over Tester."

Of the two recent polls I'm aware of, one has Rehberg up, the other one has Tester up. Once again, I am betting on turnout differentials.

"And what about Nebraska? That's a pick-up for the GOP too."

That's one of the GOP pickups I predicted. The other one is North Dakota.