Home | About | Forums | Links | Contact | LR X-treme | Video | RSS
Daily e-mail updates from
Libertarian Republican.

Friday, November 2, 2012

I'm calling it for Romney

Electoral College vote 285 to 237

Clifford F. Thies

If Karl Rove can stick his neck out and call the race at this time, so can I. I'm calling it for Romney, 285 to 237 Electoral Votes, with Iowa (6 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs) pure toss-ups. My call is very much the same as Rove's, except that I award Nevada to Romney and leave Iowa and Wisconsin as pure toss-ups, which three states he awards to Obama.

With regard to all the close states, here is my specific reasoning, based on state polls conducted during the prior thirty days for which I could obtain internals and re-weight using an average of the 2004 and 2008 partisan mix (except that I use Rasmussen's numbers without adjustment):
PROBABLE ROMNEY

CO +2.2 (21 surveys, MOE 0.9)

FL +3.3 (26 surveys, MOE 0.8)

NH +2.2 (10 surveys, MOE 1.3)

NV +2.4 (19 surveys, MOE 0.9)

OH +2.1 (37 surveys, MOE 0.7)

VA +1.9 (26 surveys, MOE 0.8)

TOSS-UP

IA -0.1 (10 surveys, MOE 1.3)

WI -0.7 (17 surveys, MOE 1.0)

LEANS OBAMA

MN -1.4 (8 surveys, MOE 1.4)

PA -1.0 (16 surveys, MOE 1.0)

PROBABLE OBAMA

MI -3.8 (8 surveys, MOE 1.4)

OR -3.1 (4 surveys, MOE 2.0)
As you can see, even though - excepting Iowa and Wisconsin - the margins are very small, because of the pooling of numerous surveys, the margins of error are similarly very small. There is no problem with sample size. The problem is uncertainty concerning the assumed turnout model. This uncertainty will only be resolved upon a tabulation of the vote.

In considering the reasonableness of my assumptions, I have considered the following information:

The best economic model available (Ray Fair's) predicts a 2 point victory for Romney in the nationwide popular vote.

My estimate for Romney's margin in the nationwide popular vote, based on 59 national polls conducted during the prior 30 days, for which I could obtain internals and re-weight using an average of the 2004 and 2008 partisan mix (except that I use Gallup's and Rasmussen's numbers without adjustment), is 2.3 points, with a MOE of 0.4 points.

In the 42 states in which voter register by party, the trend since 2008 has been to reduce the advantage enjoyed by the Democrats. This trend has been especially strong in the battleground states.

Since 2008, in both the Gallup and Rasmussen polls, the trend in party affiliation has been strongly in favor of the Republicans.

Both the Exit Poll of 2008 and the post-election Current Population Survey (CPS) of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed surges in black voter participation and young adult voter participation (with both groups heavily favoring Obama). It is unlikely that young adult voter participation will be like it was in 2008 (or that young adults will heavily favor Obama).

The Gallup Poll and various election officials indicate a surge in early voting by Republicans relative to 2004. For that matter, the Republican GOTV effort has focused on marginal Romney voters, not merely banking the Romney vote.

Republicans enter the last week of the election in a much stronger cash position that the Democrats.As the challenger in this election, we can suspect that the few remaining undecideds will break to Romney.

Dr. Thies is a professor of statistics and econo-metrics at the Univ. of Shenandoah in Virginia.

10 comments:

Gary said...

This election is different.

Notice no one is talking about "Reagan Democrat" type voters anymore. There are no moderate Denocrats to vote GOP. Every Democrat is a tax sucking Socialist whore.

It comes down to independents and it will be tight.

jgeleff said...

You've all been waiting for my election prediction. Here it is.

Percentage of vote
Romney-51%
Obama-47%

Electoral Votes
Romney-299
Obama-238
Gary Johnson-1

Eric Dondero said...

Jerry, give us an update on what you're seeing in Philly media market? Romney to Obama ads??

Ran / SVP said...

Gary, you're right, sort of: Reagan Demos ar today those disenfranchised Demos... now Independents and/or Tea. They find Romney's record in Mass is quite appealing. He's worked hard to craft a positive message to keep them in his tent.

Obama has gone hard-Left, Romney Center-Right.

2,800 people showed-up this morning to see OhBummer in Hilliard, OH according to the local fire chief's office - 10 miles from here. Romney's appearance later here this after-noon is prepping for tens of thousands. A huge chunk of them - probably one in four - is a former Democrat.

Demo registrations are dropping constantly in this State.

jgeleff said...

MASSIVE commercials for Romney, and a LOT for Obama. We were without TV and internet due to Sandy for 2 1/2 days, which was about the time when the Romney ads started running. From my social networking feeds though, I'll tell you that lots of people are reporting on being sick of seeing the commercials (for both sides) already. So maybe the term would be INUNDATION.

The Right Guy said...

Yeah, I am sick of it too, all the robocalls and such. It would be nice to limit campaigning to a short time before the election itself. In the UK, it's 6 weeks.

Chuck said...

Barone agrees with me. I still think Illinois will go for Romney, though. Just a hunch. Maybe the delicious poetry of it has me fooled. hehe

Chuck said...

Barone

Jonathan said...

I appreciate your work, the post is really helpful. It’s some pretty great info, I appreciate the information you provided is excellent post. Thank you.
Survey polls

SoBrianSaid said...

Kudos!

I want to commend you for the excellent job you did combating the liberal bias in all those polls that showed Obama ahead.

Your thoughtful analysis successfully demonstrated that pollsters and the mainstream media were projecting an Obama victory because they were rooting for Obama, and not because Obama was actually winning.

Romney's resounding victory on Tuesday night left the pollsters and MSM fully discredited. I am just thankful that we have people like you who -- despite their support for Romney -- were so rigorously independent that they could never fall into such a trap.

In other news, the founder of UnskewedPolls.com has for some unknown reason decided to discontinue his work. Perhaps you could pick up where he left off.

See you in 2016....