Saturday, November 3, 2012

Candidate Travel Plans: Victory Lap or Act of Desperation

by Clifford F. Thies

Travel plans for the Presidential candidates are now announced through Monday. Significantly, on Sunday, this will include a stop in Pennsylvania. Coincident with this, the Republican National Committee is now joining Romney's campaign committee and several associated SuperPACs in throwing big money into the state, bringing the total Republican buy of television and radio advertising in this one state to over $10 million. The Democrats are calling it an act of desperation. Romney, they say, realizes he will lose in Ohio, as well as in most if not all of the other "firewall states," and is trying to pull victory out of the jaws of defeat by seeking an alternate path to the White House.

First, the numbers continue to look like what they have been looking like for some time now: a Romney advantage with a turnout model somewhere midway between 2004 and 2008, and an Obama advantage with a turnout model like 2008, with all kinds of ancillary information supporting the former. In either case, a close election. Interestingly, in the case of Ohio, I find no difference between Romney's margin in the state and his margin nationwide. This is also true for Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. In all these cases, it's a 2 point margin for Romney. I expect each of these states to go one way or the other, depending on who turns out to vote. Two other states - Iowa and Wisconsin - are too close for me to call, even with the large number of polls that have been collected. Which brings me to Minnesota and Pennsylvania, each of which I tab as "leans Obama," because the small Obama advantage is just equal to my calculation of the margin of error. Therefore, as I see it, Romney has four "outs": Ohio (obviously) (in addition to CO, FL, IN, NC, VA and the McCain states), Wisconsin + one (of IA, NH and NV), Minnesota + one, and Pennsylvania.

Second, Romney has the resources to "spread the field," and Obama doesn't. This should mean that Romney can "move the numbers" through a massive, coordinated air and ground attack to which the other side cannot respond, well, except by sending in Bill Clinton to remind Democrat women why they need birth control. Furthermore, by putting Pennsylvania, Minnesota and, to a lesser extent, Michigan into play, the potential for busing in "voters" from neighboring states is greatly reduced.

Third, a bigger victory in the Electoral College means something. For one thing, it would preclude Democrat attempts to steal the election through legal maneuvers. For another, combined with winning the popular vote, it gives further legitimacy to a Romney presidency.

Photo credit - TheBlaze

1 comment:

jgeleff said...

Driving in Montgomery County PA (a Philadelphia suburb) today, headed to a family party, I took note that Romney yard signs outnumbered Obama yard signs by a factor of probably 10 to 1. This is the area that the pundits say is needed to offset Obama's huge vote advantage in the city. I'd say it's happening, based on what I saw today.