At least one noted libertarian political prognosticator may have called it wrongFrom Eric Dondero:
Two days out, and Mitt Romney is growing his lead over main rival Newt Gingrich. MSNBC reports, "NBC/Marist poll: Romney up 15 over Gingrich in Florida"
Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.MSNBC analyst Domenico Montanaro posits:
Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided.
If Romney pulls off a victory of that magnitude, he could be on a glide path to the nomination.Editor's comment - We know at least one regular LR reader/commenter who has been predicting a wipeout of Romney by Gingrich in Florida. The news from this just released poll doesn't quite fit that prognostication.
20 comments:
It wasn't a template. It was a rational prediction based upon the data available.
Worse, you criticize Knapp, not the statist Florida RINO establishment that is doing it's best to get the LEAST LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE elected. These are the same clowns redistricting Lt. Col. Allen West.
We will all be relieved upon the defeat of Obama, but no rational Libertarian or Conservative is going to celebrate the "victory" of one of the squishiest "moderates" in living memory.
Jon Voigt ain't no "squishy moderate." Neither is Gene Simmons. I trust their judgement on the matter.
Besides, even if he was a "moderate," a moderate squish is 1,000 times better than a Marxist Socialist Islamist.
"...a moderate squish is 1,000 times better than a Marxist Socialist Islamist."
Fine.
All the more reason we should be providing cover fire for men like Allen West.
Remember Dwight D. Eisenhower was a "moderate squish," and he defeated the most brutal murderous totalitarian in human history.
West isn't running for anything...Too bad. We need controversial people running, people that are who they are and offer no apologies. Seems the party wants the safe candidate, at least for the last 20 years. That's what I loved about Ronnie. He didn't apologize for what he had done or believed.
Guys, I've heard rumblings about West going after Bill Nelson's job.
I'll donate.
He defeated Mao? Or Stalin?
West is in a bit of a pickle today. He made some politically incorrect statements about Obama, Dems. Imagine that.
Damn, but West is good!
Veep, please. Or SecDef.
"but no rational Libertarian or Conservative is going to celebrate the "victory" of one of the squishiest "moderates" in living memory."
Ran, the word "moderate," is taking on different meanings these days, in much the same ways conservative, and libertarian have different meaning to different folks. I've been following so-called moderate, and centrist blogs for the past five or six months, and if I had to put a percentage on what most of these bloggers believe, which is fiscal conservative, socially moderate , it would be in the ninety per cent range.
If you get a chance, pick up a copy of Margaret Hoovers new book, "American Individualism" 'How a New Generation of Conservatives Can Save the Republican Party.' Its a quick and easy read. (I read it last night) My conclusion is that Hoover is a moderate, with libertarian leanings, which is what I consider most moderates/centrists in the electorate to be these days; a stark difference from Tony Blair, Bill Clinton so-called "third way" politics. Anyway, after reading Hoover's book, and Gillespie, and Welch's "Declaration of Independents," along with various internet blogs, I have a more positive view of moderates. I'm not saying Gillespie, and Welsh would self-identify as "moderates," but they are independents, as so many moderates, and centrists are. Long before I called myself libertarian, I used the term moderate. Of course, I've always been an independent, both philosophically as well as one who is registered with the county election board.
Anyway, check it out, and if you get a chance, take the short political compass test at OnTheIssues.Org. My spot on the political grid was exactly the same as Gary Johnson, which is "moderate libertarian."
Regards,
Willtsioutio
Pickle?
Palin/West.
Will:
I took the test. It had Bachmann as my top pick, but even so, it was below 60%. I guess my views are represented much.
http://www.wearepolitics.com/1/post/2012/01/george-soros-if-it-is-between-obama-and-romney-theres-not-much-difference.html
Hey, anybody seen Tom Knapp?
14 comments in, and still Knappster is missing in action.
He's been twittering.
Why don't you twitter him on over here, to answer up for his horrible poll predictions?
"14 comments in, and still Knappster is missing in action."
I don't travel a lot, but this weekend was an exception. Left yesterday morning, back this evening, not online much while I was gone.
I do sometimes adjust initial election predictions based on polling information, but I'm not seeing anything that makes me want to change this one. I'm still calling Florida for Gingrich by 8 points, plus or minus 2.
Wow, that's ballsy. Good luck with that.
It's not ballsy, it's just my estimate of the numbers.
I expect Gingrich to do better with the demographic groups that are more likely to get out and vote.
Also, I mis-typed -- I'm predicting Gingrich to win by nine points (plus or minus two), not eight.
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