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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

"Castostrophic" losses for Democrats in Nov. now likely says RCP expert

Excerpted from Sean Trende's column at Real Clear Politics (RCP) "Are Things Getting Worse for House Democrats?" Aug. 3:
what we are currently looking at is a 10-point generic lead for Republicans among the likely electorate. This would represent historic gains for the GOP. This would be larger than the 52-45% edge that gave the Republicans 230 seats in 1994 or the 52%-44% win that gave Democrats 233 seats in 2006. A ten-point win would be more consistent with the 53%-43% edge Democrats had in 2008, which gave them 257 seats - 80 seats more than Republicans presently occupy.

Recently, though, the President's disapproval numbers have spiked again, and his approvals have fallen. There is now a near-majority of voters disapproving of him, the highest number in the history of the RCP Average. This also means that there are probably around 100 House Democrats running for re-election in districts where the President's approval rating is upside-down. If this trend continues, it could be potentially catastrophic for Democrats, driving their generic numbers down even further.

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