Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Republicans poised to Sweep the Board on Governors races

From Eric Dondero:

Could it be a clean sweep? It's starting to look so, with maybe one or two exceptions. Just about all the hot Governor's races where Democrats currently control the seats, are now trending GOP.
Ohio - the latest polls have John Kasich (photo with running mate) comfortably ahead by 7 points.

Pennsylvania - GOPer Tom Corbett has been consistently ahead of Democrat Onorato by 8 to 12 points. The seat is currently held by Democrat incumbent Ed Rendell.

Maine - Democrat Baldachi cannot seek a 3rd term. Republican Paul LePage - a working class libertarian-leaning GOPer - has a 7-point lead over his Democrat challenger.

Michigan - Easy Republican pick-up here. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (photo - above) has been leading the Republican pack. But every Republican in the race, including Mike Cox, scores well ahead of two likely Democrat nominees.

Tennessee - There's a nasty GOP primary race for Governor. But all Republicans are polling way ahead of a likely Democrat nominee.

Wyoming - A Democrat currently holds the Governship in this very Republican state. But that's about to change, with both Republicans vying for the position 15 to 20 points ahead of potential Dem opponents.

Colorado - Former Republican Congressman Scott McInnis (photo - above) from the Western Slope, appears well-poised to gain the Governorship.

Kansas - Another pick-up here, from the Democrat column. Held by Kathleen Sebelius, her Lt. Governor couldn't catch on. Republican Sam Brownbeck is comfortably ahead 15 to 20 points.

New Mexico - The Bill Richardson Governorship may be handed over to Republican Susana Martinez, who is 1% ahead of her Democrat challenger in the very latest poll.
Two more expected easy GOP pick-ups - Wisconsin and Oklahoma.

And now for some absolute Shockers...

We reported recently on Bob Ehrlich taking over the lead in Maryland over incumbent Democrat Martin O'Malley, by 3%. This is a huge development. Of all the Governors races, this one has the potential to symbolically emphasize the huge turn-around for the GOP. Maryland is the bluest of blue states.

And just this morning, news breaking out of another deeply blue state. In Oregon, Hedgehog is reporting that former NBA Star, Republican Chris Dudley (photo) has pulled ahead of Governor John Kitzhaber 41% to 40%.

There are only two states where the Democrats have a decent shot of picking up a Republican seat - California. The very latest poll has Jerry Brown above Meg Whitman by 1%. But other polls have had Whitman slightly ahead. The Dems have a better shot of picking up the Hawaii Governorship.

If the GOP keeps the California seat, (note there are a large number of undecideds in Ca), and all others hold, that could mean the Republican Party controlling as many as 38 Governorships after November.

Lastly, two wildcards: Massachusetts where Charlie Baker, currently behind incumbent Dem DeVal Partick by 5 to 7, is gaining steam, and Illinois where downstate conservative Bill Brady has a decent shot of picking off incumbent Dem Pat Quinn over Blagojevich scandals. If the GOP prevails with these two seats, that would bring the number up to 40.


Aaron said...

You missed Wisconsin, where either Scott Walker or Mark Neumann will likely be the next Governor.

Eric Dondero said...

You're right. Sorry. Just added it in. And I missed Oklahoma - big GOP pick up there.

Recall, that asshole Democrat Governor in Okie was the one who tried to throw Paul Jacob in jail for sponsoring the anti-tax initiative.

Charles Peralo said...

OK how's the senate looking?

Anyone think Eric Wargotz can win in Maryland?

Sam said...

I think Wargotz can pull it off. I live in Maryland and although the US Senate race hasn't gotten much coverage, there are 11 Republicans and a handful of Dems in the the primary races. By far, Wargotz is the most credible of all of them based on his elected position, support on the ground and finances, albeit limited compared with Mikulski's. He is a proven fiscal conservative while in office and the major media outlets only cite wargotz as Mikulski's challenger. For good reason, since he is the only one among the "pack" who seems to be making progress in state-wide recognition. Interesting that he has Libertarian leanings. Certainly an independently mined fellow. Much like some of our more prominent Republican leaders these days.