Conservatives now have a good shot of winning an outright majority

Cameron wins Third Debate

by Clifford F. Thies

David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party of Great Britain, capped an improved performance in the second debate with a clear victory in the third debate. As a result, a ‘hung’ Parliament is now only slightly favored, and it would not be much of an upset were the Tories to win an outright majority.

With its multi-party system and “first past the gate” rule, the guideline in British elections is that 40 percent of the popular vote translates into a majority of the seats in Parliament. Prior to the first debate, the Conservatives seemed likely to hit the 40 percent mark and, thus, to organize the next government.

But, a strong showlng by Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats, in the first debate, introduced some real uncertainty into the race. Following the first debate, no party was indicated to be in the high 30s, no less above 40.

At this time, the Conservatives have partially restored their pre-first debate position, in first place, in the mid to high 30s, and with a lead in the mid to high single digits. The Liberal Democrats appear to have established themselves as the second largest party in terms of popular votes, relegating Labour to third place. And, uncertainties about the distribution of the votes across the United Kingdom make indetermine whether the Conservatives will secure a majority of the seats in the new Parliament.

If, as it seems to be the case, almost all of the gains by the Liberal Democrats are coming at the expense of Labour, the Conservatives might be able to achieve a majority in Parliament with a popular vote below the 40 percent mark.

An interesting aspect of this possible outcome is that the national assembly of the United Kingdom would be ruled by a party whose members are almost all elected from England, with only a handful of members from Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland.

Could further devolution be in the offing?

Perhaps the socialist districts of the United Kingdom should join with the deep blue states of the United States and the Atlantic provices of Canada, to form a country known as the United Moochers of North Atlantic (UMNA). The red and purple states of the U.S. could then join in free association with the western provinces of Canada and England, leaving Quebec to consider whether it really wants to become known as North Haiti.