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Libertarian Republican.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

HOLY SHI'IT!! NY Times gives Landrieu only 34% chance of reelection: Concedes Senate all but lost to the GOP

Arkansas Republican Tom Cotton given very good odds of defeating incumbent Dem David Pryor 

From Eric Dondero: 

Earth-shattering analysis of the Senate races, state-by-state this morning by the "prestigious" New York Times. (With a super cool graphic up top, btw.) 

Headline: "It's a toss-up" 

 Not surprisingly, given the source, the headline doesn't quite match the results further down. If you look into the numbers, and the charts, the Times have the Republican Party a lock to gain 5 seats in the Senate, and a 50/50 shot in the tiebreaker - Alaska, and near 50/50 in Michigan.  That's more like a 7 seat gain. 

(Note - even the very worst case scenario of 5 seats, still leaves Independent Sen. Angus King possibility of handing the Senate over to the GOP, by agreeing to caucus with Republicans.)
Firstly, the Times completely concedes West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. Say hello to Senators-elect Shelley Capito, Mike Rounds and Steven Daines. (For the record, we here at LR were pro-Daines, long before being a Daine-iac was cool.)

Most shockingly, and particularly pleasing for the editors of this site, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana is given only a 36% chance of reelection against either Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy or Tea Party GOPer Charles Manness. 

And this equally shocking result: Arkansas is given over to Republican Rep. Tom Cotton (also a heavy favorite of this site) over Democrat incumbent David Pryor 54% to 46%. 

This can't be welcome news for national Democrats: Mark Begich for the very first time, is listed as an endangered Democrat, with only a 50/50 shot of winning reelection. Republican darling Terry Lynn Land is regarded as having a 49% chance of winning a Democrat-held seat in Michigan. 

Finally, North Carolina leans ever-so-slightly to incumbent Dem Kay Hagen 53% to 47%. (All polls have shown her behind a generic GOP challenger.)

Democrats are given ZERO shot of gaining any Republican seats. Curtains for Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky (only a paltry 21% shot), and Michelle Nunn in Georgia (23%.) 

Editor's comment - This fits in almost entirely with my own projections. Though, I'm more bullish on Michigan, given Terri Lynn a much greater shot, and believe that Hagan is only slightly ahead in NC due to uncertainty in the GOP primary, which will fix itself here in a few weeks. I agree with the Times, it's anyone's guess for Alaska.

John Fund of WSJ picks up on LR theme: Republican surprise victories in local races going unnoticed

photo h/t - taxpayer-subsidized NPR
From Eric Dondero: 

Well, well, well. Someone in the major media has finally taken notice of something we've been shouting at the rooftops about for weeks now here at Libertarian Republican. 

 As we've relayed to our readers, Republicans won stunning victories in a Connecticut special election for state legislature, picked up a seat on the Arlington, Virginia County Board of Supervisors (note - the entire 14 member board was previously 100% Democrat), and of course, won the mayoralty in San Diego. All within the past 5 weeks. And of note, there has not been a single Democrat victory in any special election anywhere in the United States in recent months. 

From the National Review, "The increasing desperation of Democrats" (Intro):
Harry Reid isn’t backing down from his claim that rancher Cliven Bundy’s supporters are “domestic terrorists.” It’s astonishing rhetoric given the White House’s characterization of the mass shooting by a genuine terrorist, Major Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 Americans at the Fort Hood Army base after yelling “Allahu Akbar!” (God is great.) Rather than labeling Hasan’s actions “domestic terrorism,” the Obama administration is prosecuting him for having committed “workplace violence.” 
Democratic rhetoric is become ever more desperate and overheated as we approach the November midterm elections.
And then this:
Michael McDonald, an expert at George Mason University on voter turnout, is dubious that Democrats can successfully drive base voters to the polls by cherry-picking Dem-friendly issues. “They’re basically trying to reengineer the electorate,” McDonald said last week. “History is not on their side.” Indeed, in special election after special election this year, Democratic turnout has been down and Republicans have won surprising victories — from San Diego to Connecticut to Arlington, Va. (Emphasis added.)
Editor's note - Has Fund been peeking in on LR? A hat tip sure would be nice. Photos - San Diego REPUBLICAN Mayor Bob Faulconer, Connecticut REPUBLICAN State Rep. Tami Zwatowski.

Does legalizing prostitution result in more sexual assault?

by Clifford F. Thies

The United States is kind of weird among the democratic countries of the world in that prostitution is generally illegal. Although various local jurisdictions tolerate the existence of "red light districts," prostitution is only legal in two counties in Nevada. 

According to social conservatives like Joy Smith, this should mean that sexual assault is more prevalent in this country. According to her way of thinking, the fact that you could simply pay for sex induces men to force themselves onto women, even at the risk of arrest, dealing with criminal gangs, and contracting virulent STDs. This reasoning sounds kind of crazy to me, but, hey, I'm not so pig-headed that I won't look up the facts.

Of the four western democracies in which prostitution is generally illegal (according to the wikipedia article on the legal status of prostitution in the countries of the world), the rate of sexual assault averages 1.3 per 100,000 according to the latest ICVS international crime victim study. In contrast, in the 25 western democracies in which prostitution is legal, the rate of sexual assault averages only 0.4 per 100,000. So, the cost of keeping prostitution illegal is that we have triple the rate of sexual assault that we would otherwise have.

The ICVS study provides us with a couple "before" and "after" studies, countries in which we data before and after prostitution was legalized. According to Smith, Germany legalized and regulated prostitution in 2002. In that country, the rate of sexual assault fell from 1.1 per 100,000 before to 0.4 per 100,000 after. 

Again according to Smith, New Zealand decriminalized prostitution in 2003. The rate of sexual assault fell from 1.3 per 100,000 before to 0.7 per 100,000 after. And who is more likely to commit a sexual assault against a woman: Men who are raised in a culture where women are able to act as free persons, or men who are raised in a culture where women are highly regulated by laws and social customs? Consider the Scandinavian countries where police reports show that there are hardly any rapes committed by native males and where almost all the rapes that are committed are by immigrant males from a certain culture that need not even be mentioned.

Dr. Thies is a professor of economics at Shenandoah Univ. in Virginia.

Libertarian Party's candidate for NY Gov. comes from unique perspective in opposing Welfare

The Fed Gov. perpetuates poverty by attempting to keep inner-city residents on a cycle of welfare 

From the legislativegazette.com, by Matthew Dondiego, "Libertarian candidate for governor: 'Don't be too surprised if I knock out the champ'"

While Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino's candidacy for governor steals the early headlines for the upcoming gubernatorial election, a third-party candidate is gearing up for a run with hopes to make a splash in this year's race. 
Nathan Lebron, a former Republican candidate for the mayor of Albany, is seeking the Libertarian Party's endorsement to challenge incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo this fall. 
"A Hispanic kid who grew up in the ghetto," Lebron says becoming a conservative was similar to a "small miracle." Born in Harlem, Lebron also spent time growing up in San Sebastian, Puerto Rico and the Bronx.
"Nathan comes from a different background. He doesn't come from the typical Libertarian background that most members have," McMillen said, explaining one of the first issues that draws people to the party is typically their conservative economic approach. "But Nathan grew up in an environment which government assistance was essentially necessary. And he talks about something that we've talked about for a long time … how the welfare system attempts to keep you on welfare." 
McMillen says Lebron emphasized several points about how the state welfare program "locks people in for a very long time." He says Lebron talked about wanting to break from the "status quo" of perpetuating poverty.
SHOUT OUT TO LR SENIOR EDITOR CLIFF THIES: Holy Shit! Bill McMillan is still around? 

NOTE TO LR READERS: Clifford and I served with McMillan on the Libertarian National Committee in the mid-1980s. 

ON LEBRON'S CANDIDACY: What the hell. Republicans have zero chance of beating Cuomo anyway. Why not vote Lebron?

Stunning new poll result by Pew, reported by WaPo: Republicans are the MOST PRO-ALCOHOL PEOPLE IN THE ENTIRE FREAKIN' WORLD!!

U.S. Republicans beat Africans, Asians, Latin Americans, Euros and even U.S. Democrats. Muslim Middle Easterners the most intolerant of alcohol by far

From Eric Dondero: 

Pew surveyed views on hot button social issues, like abortion, divorce, homosexuality, gambling and alcohol. Overall, Americans, both Democrats and Republicans were far more open and tolerant than virtually all other cultures around the world. 

A couple of exceptions: Republicans were less respecting of divorce than Europeans, and more pro-life on abortion, and opposed to gay marriage.  And the GOP is not as tolerant as it could be on legalized gambling.

Not surprisingly, Asians and Middle Easterners fared far more socially moralistic on every issue across the board from gambling to drinking to contraceptives use, with Sub-Saharan Africans not far behind. Of particular note, shockingly, Africans seem to be the most intolerant of contraceptives and on homosexuality.  Who knew?

But this stunning result of most interest to libertarian Republicans. So stunning in fact, that liberal-leaning WaPo makes note of it.

From the Washington Post, "How Democratic and Republican morals compare to the rest of the world" (Intro):
A Pew Research Center report out this week finds that morality is in many ways a function of where you live. It polled people in 40 countries on issues such as extramarital affairs, abortion and homosexuality to see whether people thought these behaviors were acceptable, unacceptable or simply not a moral issue. 
Even better, Pew provided breakdowns of American respondents by party. Read on to see how Democrats and Republicans compare to the rest of the world on eight different questions.
And then this:
American views on the morality of alcohol are quite surprising -- one in five Democrats say drinking alcohol is morally unacceptable, slightly higher than the percentage of Republicans who say the same.
And the gap between Dems and Repubs was significant, a full 5%. 

Furthermore, looking at the chart (at the link above), Republicans were enormously more tolerant of alcohol than Muslim/Middle Easterners who tower over GOPers nearly 5 to 1. 

Bottom line from the libertarian perspective: The Republican Party is consistently the home of anti-prohibitionism and anti-Islamism. Which makes all the sense in the world considering Dems today favor hugely expansive taxes on alcohol, nanny-state regs on bars, opposes lowering the drinking age to 18, and are the party that caters to Muslims. 

We in the libertarian wing still have some work to do with our fellow Republicans on gambling.

New Mexico Democrat candidate for Governor says fmr. Libertarian VP candidate David Koch and libertarian Republican Sarah Palin worse than domestic terrorists in the Weather Underground

Received $$ contributions and an official endorsement from a domestic terrorist associate of Weather Underground's Bill Ayeres

From Eric Dondero: 

There are four Democrats vying for the party's nomination to run against incumbent Republican Governor Susana Martinez. One of them, has just been discovered to have support from a Bill Ayers affiliated domestic terrorist. 

From KRQE, "Radical group’s founder helps Dem candidate":
Democrat Alan Webber has raised the most money out of the five candidates vying for the party’s nomination and the right to take on Governor Susana Martinez in the November election.
It turns out Webber got some fundraising help from a controversial source. 
From the late 1960′s to the mid 1970′s, the anti-war group the Weather Underground planted and detonated bombs at targets across the country. The group’s manifesto called for the violent overthrow of the United States government. 
One of its founders was Mark Rudd (photo - right), a former Columbia student and the self-described author of the group’s strategy. Rudd was a fugitive wanted by the FBI for years...
Rudd has lived in Albuquerque since 1980, teaching at CNM for two and a half decades before retiring. Rudd has repeatedly expressed regret for his actions and the Weather Underground’s actions in recent decades. A week and a half ago, Rudd’s wife Marla Painter hosted a campaign event for Webber at the couple’s Albuquerque home. 
One day later, Rudd announced he was endorsing Webber in an email. Rudd acknowledged Webber was an odd choice for him, given Webber’s business past, but wrote he was impressed by the candidate’s understanding of a number of key issues. 
“Help elect a pro-jobs, pro-environment progressive Democrat as Governor,” Rudd wrote.
Webber - left
Webber's statement when confronted with the allegations by local news:
I just met Mark Rudd. Of course I denounce terrorism and understand Mark Rudd regrets his involvement with the radical anti-government group (sic) from the 1960′s. For over two decades Mark has been a proponent of non-violence and a teacher at CNM. If Governor Martinez wants to discuss her supporters, she should start with the Koch Brothers and Sarah Palin.
Editor's note - Webber's big issue is Government Education.  Ahh, yes, teaching the little kiddies how to build bombs, incinerate buildings and kill capitalists at an early age.  

Exit comment - Note how he used the term "anti-government."  Truly bizarre given Ayeres, Rudd and the Weather Ground shared the same pro-big government views of President Lyndon Johnson and later Pres. Nixon.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Stand with Ayaan Hirsi Ali

by Mike Renzulli 

Recently Islamic critic Ayaan Hirsi Ali had an honorary degree she was to receive from Brandeis University nixed by the institution's President. Apparently, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (aka CAIR) and a few other Leftist and Islamist groups complained to Frederick Lawrence about the honor she was to receive. 

Consequently, Ali's award was bagged

Ayaan Hirsi Ali is one of my personal heroes. She grew up in a strict Muslim household in Somalia, had her genitals mutilated in addition to being subject to other kinds of physical and mental abuse and was going to be sent to Canada on an arranged marriage. Fortunately, she was able to escape to Holland while staying overnight in Germany awaiting a connecting flight. 

She is a well-spoken, highly educated and articulate woman who is hiding in fear for her life with armed bodyguards after receiving death threats while she served in Holland's Parliament for publicly criticizing her former religion: Islam. One of the points of contention CAIR raised was her appearing and being a producer of a film entitled The Honor Diaries which discusses the status of women in Islam. 

To express our solidarity with Ms. Ali my Objectivist club will soon host a public screening of the movie. In the meantime, please send an email to Brandeis University President Frederick Lawrence and (politely) express your disappointment with his decision. He has sided with the very ideology that Ms Ali escaped and threatens not only to kill her but destroy the very fabric of Western Civilization. 

 His email address is: lawrence@brandeis.edu

Editor's note - Renzulli is a former member of the Arizona Libertarian Party Executive Comm. He is also a local Tea Party activist in the Phoenix area.

More proof of climate change: fewer tornadoes

by Clifford F. Thies 

According to this source, Twitpic.com we are having one of the slowest starts of tornado season in history. How is this more proof of climate change? 

Well, according to Popular Science, climate change AKA global warming climate could either increase or decrease the frequency of tornadoes depending on whether its effect on which countervailing factor is greater. 

Yes. as with so many other phenomena, the climate models are consistent with more, less or - if the countervailing factors off-set each other - the same number of tornadoes. It's a bullet proof theory, incapable of being contradicted. No wonder the President says "it's a fact." It's a fact, is it not, that the number of tornadoes will go up or go down or stay the same, thus proving that the climate models are correct. 

Oh, this just in: global temperature hasn't changed in 17 years.