Tuesday, February 9, 2016

MIDNIGHT VOTE: Cruz, Kasich and Trump in 3-way tie

Dixville Notch: Kasich 4 to Trump 3
Hart's Location: Kasich 5 to Trump 4
Millsville: Cruz 9 to Trump 3

TOTAL: Cruz, Kasich and Trump 9 each, Christie 2, Bush, Carson, Rubio and Paul 1 each.

Also Sanders takes two of the three, and leads Clinton 17 to 9.

D-Day in New Hampshire

Our New Hampshire polling average has Donald Trump far out in front with 31 percent, about where he has been since September of last year. We have John Kasich and Marco Rubio each with about 14 battling it out for second place. The only other candidates at or above 10 percent are Ted Cruz with 11 and Jeb Bush with 10.

Cruz, the winner of the Iowa caucuses, is not indicated to have had any bounce in the Granite State. Rubio, a surprisingly strong third in Iowa, is indicated to have enjoyed a bounce, but that disappeared after a poor debate performance on Saturday night. Kasich, who mostly ignored Iowa, is in a good position to snatch second place.

The weather forecast is threatening. Winter storm Mars is off the coast of New England with snow beginning to fall Monday evening. As of Monday evening, a winter storm warning is in effect for the southeast corner of the state, with a winter weather advisory for the remainder of the state.

Monday, February 8, 2016

Super Bowl moments:

This was voted both the best and the worst Super Bowl ad. One of two that freaked the pro-abortionists (the other being the series of ads celebrating "Super Bowl Babies").

Super Bowl moments:

What do you get when you add a spoonful of Christine Aguilera and a pinch of Kate Smith to a full measure of herself, folded in with a little jazz, a smidgen of opera and a whole lot of stage performance? You get a beautiful and inspiring National Anthem by natural born citizen and entrepreneuse Lady Gaga.

The meaning of conservatism


At Saturday's Republican debate, several candidates were asked to define conservatism. Marco Rubio gave a thoughtful and politically-astute answer. He said conservatism (in America, today) embodies three principles: (1) limited government under the framework of the Constitution, (2) free-market economics and (3) peace through strength. Donald Trump, who maybe hadn't previously thought about the matter, gave an answer in keeping with the root word "conserve." 

Russell Kirk, in The Conservative Mind, inferred the meaning of conservatism from his study of great "conservative minds" of his past. As summarized by the Kirk Center, conservatism involves six principles. As he wrote more than sixty years ago, I will take the liberty of considering certain great conservative minds since, including, in particular, F.A. Hayek and Pope John Paul II.

1. Belief in a transcendent order or body of natural law that rules society as well as conscience. There is objective truth in the universe, and we can know it. All sources of knowledge testify to this truth, and therefore faith and reason must be reconciled. Furthermore, our knowledge of "self-evident truths" grows as we become more aware of our nature and that of the universe.

2. Affection for the variety and mystery of human existence, as opposed to the narrow uniformity and egalitarianism of “radical” systems. We love people, not merely "the people," and we enjoy our culture and all the cultures of the world. We love the planet on which we find ourselves and the entire universe in its vastness and in its tiniest details. It is all utterly amazing and beyond human comprehension, and we also love that. And, we are suspicious of those who would seek to impose their designs on society, as they only reveal they have no idea of the limits of their knowledge.

3. Civilization needs the rule of law and something Adam Smith described as "useful inequality." This is in contrast to the notion of a “classless society.” Conservatives believe there are natural distinctions among men, leading to inequalities of condition. Conservatives affirm equality before God and the law; anything more leads not only to servitude but to boredom.

4. The argument for property is more than economic efficiency. It is that by having something a person can call his own, and by earning his living as opposed to depending on the apparatus of the state, a person is enabled to see himself as a unique and wonderful creature, and to love himself; and, loving himself thusly, and relating to others on the basis of mutual advantage and affection, he is enabled to love others as he loves himself. (I got this profound insight into the moral foundation of capitalism from Pope John Paul II.)

5. That social institutions such as the family, churches, fraternal organizations, for-profit business organizations, charities and even governments, are animated and justified by the choices made by those entering into them. (This is a wholesale substitution of the fifth principle of the Kirk Center, which is merely the converse of the second principle.) (I developed this from James Buchanan's theory of clubs. It is the nexus of libertarian and conservative thought, libertarians being concerned with freedom, and conservatives with social institutions.)

6. Conservatives recognize risk and reward involved in change. While we believe in progress, we accept that mistakes are and will be made by those engaged in the process of discovery. Hayek dedicated his book The Constitution of Liberty to "The unknown civilization taking shape in America." Hopefully, after the election we should again be excited about the great adventure we embarked upon with the founding of this country.

Broncos win points to Republican victory in November

In Superbowl 50 ("L"), the irresistible force (Carolina's offense led by MVP Cam Newton) met the immovable object (Denver's defense), and the immovable object won. Since 1980, the rule that: when AFC teams win the Superbowl the Republicans subsequently win, and when NFC teams win the Superbowl the Democrats subsequently win has held 7 out of 9 times. This is almost as good a forecasting rule as Hillary winning coin flips, or Hillary winning on cattle futures. In any case, it's a better forecasting rule than the polls.

1980: Steelers (AFC), Reagan (R)
1984: Raiders (AFC), Reagan (R) 
1988: Redskins (NFC), GHW Bush (R)
1992: Redskins (NFC), Clinton (D) 
1996: Cowboys (NFC), Clinton (D) 
2000: Rams (NFC), GW Bush (R)
2004: Patriots (AFC), GW Bush (R) 
2008: Giants (NFC), Obama (D) 
2012: Giants (NFC), Obama (D)
2016: Broncos (AFC), REPUBLICAN

VA: Rubio, Cruz in statistical tie with Hillary, Trump loses badly

Roanoke College has released a poll with hypothetical match-ups of the three leading Republican contenders and the two Democratic contenders. Our focus is on the match-ups with Hillary Clinton. Marco Rubio trails by 3 points and Ted Cruz by 4, these being within the statistical margin of error. Donald Trump, on the other hand, loses to Hillary by 17 points, 52 to 35.

Illegals don't discriminate …

So why do Republicans want to deport them?

Jesse Benavides, 33, TX, murdered by being shot in the back by an illegal who had previously been found guilty of rape.
Grant Ronnebeck, 21, AZ, murdered during a robbery of a convenience store by an illegal who had a prior felony conviction.
Sviatlana Dranko, 30, NJ, sexually assaulted, murdered by strangulation, then her body was burned by an illegal.
Naomi Mercury, 18, NC, killed in a felony hit and run by a previously deported illegal.