Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Greg Abbott increases his lead over Wendy Davis for Texas Governor, now ahead by... wait for it... here it comes... 21 points!

Abbott over Davis 52.4% to 31% 

From Eric Dondero: 

There was a time just a mere two months ago, when this looked like it might be turning into a race. One poll had Wendy Davis in "single digits" at 9 points down. But alas, that was Davis's high point. 

Now this, from Crosswinds Communications, "Crosswind Poll Shows Abbott with Significant Lead":
A poll conducted by Crosswind Media and Public Relations shows Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Wendy Davis by 52.4 percent to 31 percent in the race for Texas governor, with 16.2 percent of voters undecided. The live telephone survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9-12. The margin of error for the poll was 4.33 percent. 
The same poll shows Republican Dan Patrick beating Democrat Leticia Van de Putte by 42.8 percent to 23 percent in the lieutenant governor’s race, with 33 percent of Texans undecided. 
“Greg Abbott has a commanding lead and has successfully motivated the Republican base,” said Crosswind President Thomas Graham. “Texas remains a red state, at least among likely voters in non-presidential years, and Wendy Davis does not appear to have made a dent in that strength.”
As a barometer of sorts, Democrat Bill White, former Mayor of Houston, got 41% against Rick Perry 4 years ago. 

Editor's note - Of course, this is the very definition in politics of the bottom falling out. And it's not just Davis who will suffer, but the entire Democrat ticket in Texas up and down the ballot. 

Gardner closing on new ideas

"A new generation: A new kind of Republican" 

From Eric Dondero: 

Energy. A very hot topic for Colorado voters. And one that gives Cory Gardner an opportunity to present his new ideas agenda. Very positive, upbeat ad to close.  

Editor's note - Let the record show, that we here at LR were pro-Cory Gardner, a self-described "libertarian-conservative," long before being a Gardner-ite was cool. 

Is Colorado tightening (or has the air come out of the Shogun balloon?)

by Clifford F. Thies 

As we enter the homestretch of this year's mid-term elections, voters are getting real. Do you want to "make a statement" by voting for a third-party or independent candidate with no chance of winning, or do you switch to an acceptable second choice who has a chance of winning? 

In Colorado, we are seeing this play out in terms of the support independent candidate Steve Shogun is receiving in the polls, and in terms of the shift of much of his support to the incumbent, Democratic Senator Mark Udall. Steve Shogun is apparently a Democrat in independent clothing. His history of political contributions is only of contributions to Democrats and his positions on issues range from moderate to left-of-center. He opposes Obamacare, for example, because he supports single-payer (i.e., universal Medicaid). 

Regarding Social Security, he is for reducing Social Security for people who save for their retirement, so as to convert Social Security from a modified insurance and pension program into yet another welfare program, based on need rather than how much people put into it. Also, he wants to increase Social Security taxes along with increasing a lot of other taxes, in order to punish those who work regularly rather than turn their lives over to their government masters. He wants to raise taxes "on the rich," as though the rich are so stupid that they won't move from high tax jurisdictions to low tax jurisdictions. And, when they leave, who will have to pick up the slack? He also wants to raise taxes on the companies from which people buy goods and services as though they don't pass along the burden of taxes to their customers in the form of higher prices. 

To be sure, he couches some of what he says in ways that appeal to Tea Party patriots, some of whom are not the sharpest tools in the shed. But, most of his support came from Udall, not from the Republican Cory Gardiner. Until recently, Shogun was doing fine in the polls, when he was named as a choice. The (early) October Quinnipiac Poll, for example, showed him at 8 percent. And, when he was named as a choice, support for Udall collapsed, and Gardener appeared to surge. But, this website wasn't fooled by what was going on. We anticipated that support for Shogun would come back to Earth. With mail voting underway in the state, that time is now here. 

A just conducted PPP poll showed Shogun at 1 percent, with Udall closing most of, but not all the gap that had opened up between Gardiner and him. At this point, we are in yet another phase of the campaign. Voters are getting real. And support for third-party and independent candidates appears to have settled down to where it will wind up. Gardiner is leading in each of the three public polls (PPP, Monmouth and Gravis) released since voting got underway, albeit by an average of only 2 points.

Ernst closes with a familiar theme

From Eric Dondero: 

Joni's final ad running on Iowa TV. It's a twist on the original ad that turned her into a Republican "breakout star."  

From TheHill, "Ernst: Washington is full of...":
That quirky spot drew widespread local and national attention and was seen as a game-changer for her candidacy, helping her build goodwill among Iowa's rural population and agricultural workers. Her campaign said the latest ad was filmed in the same pen, with the same pigs, who are now much older and bigger. 
Ernst has emerged as a breakout GOP star in this cycle, and is threatening to win a race Democrats once thought they'd take easily.

BOOM! Charlie Baker takes "first ever" lead in WBUR tracking poll over Mah'tha' Coakley


Several polls "showing movement toward[s] Baker"  

From Eric Dondero: 

This makes it 4 leads in a row for Charlie, according to RCP. The Baker vs. Coakley board is all lit up with Red, (with one black for a Tie). Not a Blue poll in sight. 

Baker leads in RCP, which includes Rasmussen, Boston Globe and WBGBH, by 2.3%. From WBUR Radio in Boston, "Baker Edges Ahead Of Coakley":
For the first time in the WBUR weekly tracking poll, Republican Charlie Baker is leading Democrat Martha Coakley in the race to become the next governor of Massachusetts. 
Even though Baker’s lead over Coakley is tiny — 1 percentage point, 43-42 — and well within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error, Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducts WBUR’s surveys, says it’s significant. 
“It’s one of several polls which over the last week or so have shown a movement toward Baker,” he said. “Coakley has essentially been treading water while Baker’s been climbing.”
Charlie Baker racking up some better-than-normal percentages in inner-city Boston

WBUR further describes how Baker is winning big among men, and Coakley is not even managing to rally Dems behind her. 

Pollster Koczela says Baker doesn’t need to win all the cities in the state; he merely needs to shrink the usual Democratic blowout. And so far it seems his visits are paying off. 
Koczela analyzed poll results in Boston and other urban hubs across the state (the 26 Gateway Cities), dating back to the beginning of the WBUR tracking poll, and he discovered that Baker has shrunk a 21-point Coakley lead down to 9 points. This is important, Koczela says, because when Coakley lost the U.S. Senate race in 2010 against Scott Brown, she won cities by only 9 points (54-45).
"The most famous loser in U.S. politics" 

As if that wasn't bad enough for Coakley, check out this opening for a Washington Post article this morning, 
Democrat Martha Coakley struggles again on Massachusetts campaign trail
The most famous loser in recent U.S. politics is back on the campaign trail in Massachusetts. It is not going as well as she’d hoped. 
Four years ago, Coakley achieved unwanted national fame for managing to lose the seemingly unlosable race to replace a late Democratic icon, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy. That campaign was a short, intense clinic in bungling: Coakley took a vacation in mid-campaign. She blasphemed a Red Sox icon who had supported her opponent, calling him a “Yankees fan.” And she didn’t attack Republican challenger Scott Brown until he had surged in the polls...

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Jeanne Shaheen completely ducks straightforward question from debate panel member: Do you support Obama "yes, or no"?

From Eric Dondero: 

Notice the audience chuckle when she struggles to come up with an answer. And then a minute later she reverts to complete politician mode, talking about bi-partisan legislation she co-sponsored, all the while not answering the question about Obama.

And this just breaking... Left-leaning Politifact admits Brown was pretty much right on his assertion that Shaheen votes with the president 99% of the time:
The 2013 CQ analysis shows that, when you look at the pool of votes in which Obama took a clear position, Shaheen’s vote matched the president’s stance 99 percent of the time. 
Overall, during the five years since Shaheen took office, Shaheen’s votes have aligned with the president’s position 98 percent of the time. That’s pretty close to the 99 percent figure...
Editor's comment - But hey, at least Shaheen showed up for her debate tonight. Credit where credit is due. A few hundred miles away, down in North Carolina, Kay Hagan skipped out on her 4th and final debate with Republican Thom Tillis.

BOOM! Doug Ducey out front by a solid 6 in Arizona Governor's race

Developing... Stay tuned... 

From Eric Dondero: 

To be released later this afternoon... from Rasmussen. Cold Stream Creamery's CEO and a sometimes identified "libertarian" is now leading Democrat David DuVal by 6 points, 47% to 41%. 

Editor's note - I have to check with the LR decision desk. However, I think Cliff and I may just stick a fork in this one. (H/t - HHR)

Latest ad by Marilinda Garica - Republican for Congress, NH CD-2

From Eric Dondero: 

She's Millennial to the core. Gotta love that alternative rock soundtrack. Marilinda on immigration. 

Oh, and the latest poll released late yesterday has her up by 5.