Thursday, October 30, 2014

ARKANSAS: Republican Tom Cotton over Pryor 49 to 36% for Senate; Republican Asa Hutchison over Ross for Guv 50 to 39%

Born-with-a-silver-spoon in his mouth Mark Pryor getting absolutely crushed by Cotton with male voters 

From the University of Arkansas - Fayetteville - "Arkansas Poll Finds GOP Leading in Races":
Among very likely voters, Tom Cotton, the Republican candidate, maintains a significant lead over Democrat Mark Pryor, at 49 percent to 36 percent. That gap widens significantly among men, with 57 percent of very likely voters favoring Cotton versus 36 percent for Pryor. On the other hand, women showed no clear preference, with both Cotton and Pryor at 42 percent. 
That gap widens significantly among men, with 57 percent of very likely voters favoring Cotton versus 36 percent for Pryor...(Emphasis added.) 
Conducted between Oct. 21 and 27, the poll showed solid leads for Republican candidates among very likely voters, continuing a pattern that emerged in 2010. As with the senatorial race, the Republican gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson leads Democrat Mike Ross, 50 percent to 39 percent among very likely voters
Editor's comment - Wow. Just Wow. If the Sissy-boy label fits, guess ya gotta wear it. Hey Mark, you probably should have spent a few years in the Military, to toughen you up some? Perhaps your fellow males in AR would be giving you a bit more respect? 

Another drop-out gambit in the works?

by Clifford F. Thies 

Seems the smartest idea the Democrats have come up with this year: dropping out. Alaska Governor. Kansas Senate. Now comes the independent candidate for Governor of Maine holding a conference to say he's going to lose, but isn't dropping out, and saying that he understands that many of his supporters will shift to an acceptable second choice with a chance of winning. 

Hey, Elliot, that's kind of like taking credit for water flowing down hill. 

Down in Georgia, support for Amanda Swafford, originally in the high single digits, now down to the low single digits; and, guess who's "surging" in the polls. From falling behind two weeks ago, the Republican, David Perdue, has been even or ahead in each of the last seven polls. In North Carolina, Sean Haugh remains in the high single digits, and the Republican, Thom Tillis, trails or is tied with the Democrat. But, on election night, when the winning candidate's victory party is calling for pizza and soda, what do you think Sean will be doing? Down in Florida, Adrian Wyllie continues to do well with his slogan of "more weed, less war," sometimes fetching 12 percent of the vote or so. Problem is, will his supporters remember to vote.

Photo - Eliot Cutler with Independent Senator Angus King of Maine.

Republicans not without hope in Michigan and Pennsylvania

by Clifford F. Thies 

On October 18th, President Barack Obama made a campaign appearance with the Democratic candidate for Governor of Maryland. Within days, a poll was released showing that the Republican candidate had jumped to within 1 point of the lead, closing a gap of 9 points in a prior Washington Post poll. On October 27th, Obama made a campaign appearance with the Democratic candidate for Governor of Wisconsin. A Marquette University Law School Poll, that has previously showed the race tied, then showed the Republican candidate with a 7 point lead. 

Now it has been announced that Obama will be making campaign appearances in Detroit and Philadelphia. Terri Lynn Land and Tom Corbett were heard to exclaim "Thank you, Jesus!"

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Holy Sh*it! Is Lois Capps vulnerable??

Robert Mitchum's son all-of-a-sudden a serious contender in heavily Dem Cali district 

From Eric Dondero:

It's getting really weird in these last few days...

Longtime entrenched incumbent Democrat Rep. Lois Capps is now vulnerable? 

From ABC News
 Dems Rush to Save Suddenly Vulnerable Incumbents
In one example, the Democratic committee has bought $99,000 in radio ads for eight-term Rep. Lois Capps in her Santa Barbara-area race against Chris Mitchum, the son of the late actor Robert Mitchum. The GOP candidate has relatively little money still on hand for his campaign — $96,108 — but the contest is considered close.
If Mitchum wins, that could mean a 3rd congressional pick-up for the GOP in California: suburban Sacramento district and Carl DeMaio in San Diego. Though, there is one Republican-held seat of a retiring Rep. down south that looks vulnerable to a Democrat pick-up.  

Also of particular interest to libertarian Republicans, ABC News further reports that Biden is being dispatched to Massachusetts to save Seth Moulton, Democrat against gay Republican Richard Tisei. The last poll released 2 weeks ago, showed Tisei, ahead by 3 points.

Republicans get their First Official Pick-up of Dem-held Senate seat

Senator-elect Shelly Capito Moore, Republican West Virginia 

From Eric Dondero: 

There was a time, back in late Spring to early Summer, when some more optimistic Democrats dreamed of making West Virginia a competitive race. There were feature stories on Natalie Tennant in major left-leaning publications and news sites. Some early polls suggested that it might not be a Republican rout after all. But for the last few weeks, this race has been a done deal. 

And tonight, Democrat pollster Stu Rothenberg makes it official. His Rothenberg Report just moved West Virginia from "Republican favored" to "Safe Republican."

Bob Beauprez 5 points over Hickenlooper in Colorado Guv's race


Beauprez trouncing Hickster 54 to 33 with All-Important Male Vote 

From Quinnipiac:
Men are going Republican in a big way in the Colorado governor's race, giving former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger a 45 - 40 percent likely voter lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper, the Democratic incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 4 percent, with 2 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 9 percent are undecided. 
This compares to an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing 45 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper and 44 percent for Beauprez. With Hess out of the race, Beauprez leads 46 - 41 percent, with 3 percent for Hempy. With Hempy out, Beauprez leads 45 - 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hess. Men back Beauprez 54 - 33 percent, compared to 49 - 41 percent last week. This overwhelms Hickenlooper's 47 - 37 percent lead among women.
Editor's comment - This is shaping up to be the Year of the Anti-Sissy Boy!  

Those Colorado Exit Polls

by Clifford F. Thies 

With an all-mail vote, the dynamics of the election are different in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. During the last several weeks of the campaign in these states, voter surveys are something like exit polls. Increasing percentages of voters have actually completed their ballots.

Over on Huffington Post, Michael MacDonald says about Colorado, "Perhaps we will get the strongest read from Colorado's all-mail ballot election, but even there the signal will be difficult to interpret since this is the state's first such election." He then proceeds to analyze early votes in other states. That's a tell. It says more about MacDonald's political orientation than it does about what early voting is indicating in Colorado. 

 The figures MacDonald compiles show that the Republicans have a very strong advantage in returned ballots in Colorado, 42.8% to 32.4%. Given the strong inclinations of Republicans to vote Republican (and of Democrats to vote Democratic, except that in a few states where there still are meaningful numbers of "blue dogs"), and the fact that polling shows that the candidates are about even among Independents, these early voting statistics indicate that Gardner is far ahead in terms of the votes that have been cast. But, what about the votes yet to be cast? 

We'll look at the four public polls that have been conducted since balloting has gotten underway. 

The NBC/Marist Poll - the freshest of the four - confirms the above observation that Gardner has a strong advantage among those who have already mailed in their ballots. This poll also indicates that Udall has the advantage among voters who have yet to cast their votes (but not a big enough advantage to overtake Gardner). However, it also indicates that 57% of Udall's supporters "might vote differently" (as opposed to 43% of Gardner's supporters). So, Udall's support among those who have yet to vote is soft (as well as insufficient). 

The Quinnipiac Poll also gives Gardner a big lead among those who have already voted, and Udall a smaller lead among those who have yet to vote. And, like the NBC/Marist Poll, it indicates that Udall's support among those who have not yet voted is softer. While only 4 percent of Gardner's supporters "might change their mind," 7 percent of Udall's supporters might.

The Suffolk University/USA Today Poll appears to have conducted most of its interviews prior to mail voting getting underway as only 16 percent of its sample said they voted early. What is telling in this poll is that Mark Udall is about as badly underwater in terms of job approval as is Obama (in the state). Obama's job approval number in this poll is 41 percent, and Udall's is 40 percent. It is true that the state voted for Obama in 2012, but of those in the sample who voted for Obama, 10 percent indicate that they regret that vote, and another 16% are uncertain as to whether they regret that vote. 

Finally, we come to the Monmouth University Poll. This and the other state polls conducted by Monmouth were not accepted for the RealClearPolitics averages. As to why, we can only guess. But, as massively contradicted by the early voting data and other polling data, this poll shows Udall ahead by 10 points in the early voting (even though it shows Gardner ahead by 1 point overall).

Two seat gain for the GOP most likely, but they could get up to 51 with party caucus or switching

I'm no Nate Silver, but... 

by Thomas L. Knapp 

Gridlock ain't what it used to be now that Congresses of both parties roll over for presidents of both parties so much, but it's the best we can hope for. 

I like testing my handicapping skills. I'm no Nate Silver, but I'm usually well ahead of the middle of the pack. And when I'm wrong, I learn from it. 

This year I suspect I'm wrong, but not so horribly wrong that it's shameful. 

My "final prediction," which I have to stick to, is that the GOP will get a net gain of two seats. At this point that looks a little low. They might even claw their way to 51, although I expect that if they do so it will be with Joe Manchin/Angus King/Greg Orman party- or caucus-switching. 

Editor's note - Manchin is a moderate Democrat Senator from West Virginia, often thought to be a likely candidate for a party switch to GOP; Angus King is the Independent from Maine, and Greg Orman is the Independent candidate for US Senate in Kansas.