From Eric Dondero:
Earth-shattering analysis of the Senate races, state-by-state this morning by the "prestigious" New York Times. (With a super cool graphic up top, btw.)
Headline: "It's a toss-up"
Not surprisingly, given the source, the headline doesn't quite match the results further down. If you look into the numbers, and the charts, the Times have the Republican Party a lock to gain 5 seats in the Senate, and a 50/50 shot in the tiebreaker - Alaska, and near 50/50 in Michigan. That's more like a 7 seat gain.
(Note - even the very worst case scenario of 5 seats, still leaves Independent Sen. Angus King possibility of handing the Senate over to the GOP, by agreeing to caucus with Republicans.)
Firstly, the Times completely concedes West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. Say hello to Senators-elect Shelley Capito, Mike Rounds and Steven Daines. (For the record, we here at LR were pro-Daines, long before being a Daine-iac was cool.)
Most shockingly, and particularly pleasing for the editors of this site, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana is given only a 36% chance of reelection against either Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy or Tea Party GOPer Charles Manness.
And this equally shocking result: Arkansas is given over to Republican Rep. Tom Cotton (also a heavy favorite of this site) over Democrat incumbent David Pryor 54% to 46%.
This can't be welcome news for national Democrats: Mark Begich for the very first time, is listed as an endangered Democrat, with only a 50/50 shot of winning reelection. Republican darling Terry Lynn Land is regarded as having a 49% chance of winning a Democrat-held seat in Michigan.
Finally, North Carolina leans ever-so-slightly to incumbent Dem Kay Hagen 53% to 47%. (All polls have shown her behind a generic GOP challenger.)
Democrats are given ZERO shot of gaining any Republican seats. Curtains for Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky (only a paltry 21% shot), and Michelle Nunn in Georgia (23%.)
Editor's comment - This fits in almost entirely with my own projections. Though, I'm more bullish on Michigan, given Terri Lynn a much greater shot, and believe that Hagan is only slightly ahead in NC due to uncertainty in the GOP primary, which will fix itself here in a few weeks. I agree with the Times, it's anyone's guess for Alaska.